What does a USD 20 – 30 bn annual financing gap imply for Vietnam’s financial system?

Economic growth is inseparable from investment across economies. As capital demand continues to rise, the financial system, particularly the banking credit channel, is gradually approaching prudential limits. So where will Vietnam mobilize the capital needed to sustain growth in the coming period?

Market Commentary No. 05 from the Vietnam Corporate Bond Market Forum 2026 addresses this issue by assessing the link between growth and capital demand, while highlighting constraints within the financial system and the conditions required to strengthen capital mobilization capacity over the medium to long term.

The report is based on a discussion between Mr. Kim Eng Tan, Managing Director – Sector Lead, Asia-Pacific Sovereign Ratings at S&P Global Ratings, and Mr. Nguyen Anh Quan, Director of Financial Institution Ratings at FiinRatings.

Key highlights:

🔹 Investment as a foundation for growth: The link between investment and growth remains consistent across economies. Countries maintaining investment levels above 20% of GDP tend to achieve stronger and more stable growth, particularly in developing markets.

🔹 Institutional quality and sovereign credit profile: Improvements in institutional frameworks, policy transparency, and predictability are key factors supporting sovereign credit rating upgrades. Conversely, rapid credit expansion may pose risks to the sovereign credit profile.

🔹 A widening financing gap: Vietnam is estimated to face a financing gap of USD 20–30 billion annually to meet its growth targets. This underscores the need to develop capital markets, particularly the corporate bond market, to secure long-term funding and reduce reliance on bank credit.

🔹 A shift in banking sector dynamics: The banking sector is expected to move toward more selective credit growth. In this context, Tier 1 capital adequacy and liquidity resilience will become increasingly important.

👉 Access the full report at: THIS LINK

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