Vietnam’s Economic Outlook 2026+: A Capital-Based Perspective on Investment

On January 13, at the FChoice 2025 Award Ceremony organised by CafeF, Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan – Executive Chairman of FiinGroup and FiinRatings – delivered a presentation titled “Economic Outlook 2026 and Capital Mobilisation Channels for Growth.”

The presentation analysed Vietnam’s economic growth performance in 2025 and assessed the outlook for long-term capital mobilisation channels, including the equity market and domestic and international debt capital–particularly corporate bonds–in supporting the objective of achieving double-digit economic growth from 2026 onward.

According to Mr. Thuan, in addition to the two primary sources of capital–public investment disbursement and long-term bank credit–enterprises should proactively leverage capital market financing to meet the increasing investment demand of the private sector.

Key Highlights:

• GDP growth reached 8.02% in 2025, driven mainly by sectors directly benefiting from public investment, which increased by 26.6%, and by the FDI sector, where disbursement rose by 11.7%. In contrast, private investment grew by only 8.4%, while domestic consumption recovered more slowly, increasing by 6.7% after adjusting for price effects.
• The FDI sector recorded export growth of 26.9% in 2025, compared with a decline of 7.5% among domestic enterprises. The trade surplus reached approximately USD 20 billion, down from USD 24.9 billion in 2024.
• Achieving sustained double-digit growth from 2026 will critically depend on a stronger recovery in private-sector investment. While policy support measures and structural reforms are being actively implemented, the key challenge lies in translating these policies into concrete investment and production activities that effectively contribute to economic growth.
• The capacity of the banking system to provide long-term capital is increasingly constrained. Bank credit expanded by 19.9% in 2025, pushing the credit-to-GDP ratio to 146% by year-end. Meanwhile, the system-wide capital adequacy ratio declined to below 12%, and the deposit funding structure remains unfavourable for long-term lending. In this context, capital markets need to be more clearly repositioned as the primary provider of long-term funding to support high yet sustainable economic growth.
• In the corporate bond market, issuance value increased by 35.5% in 2025 to VND 644.3 trillion. However, issuance by non-bank corporates remained below VND 200 trillion. With new policies aimed at improving bond quality, alongside rising domestic interest rates and a more restrictive monetary policy stance, the corporate bond market is expected to expand more strongly in 2026.
• Equity market financing continued to record a major milestone, with capital raised through equity issuance reaching a record VND 141 trillion in 2025. Together with Vietnam’s market upgrade narrative toward Emerging Market status, long-term capital mobilisation via the equity market–including IPOs and new listings–is projected to accelerate further in 2026 and the years ahead.

Mr. Nguyen Quang Thuan emphasised that the key constraint to growth lies not only in capital mobilisation, but in enterprises’ capacity to absorb capital effectively. Project execution, financial management, transparency, and overall bankability will ultimately determine whether capital inflows can be translated into sustainable economic growth.

As capital markets are expected to become a core pillar of economic growth from 2026, FiinRatings continues to support enterprises, investors, and market participants through its credit rating services, in-depth analysis, and comprehensive risk assessments. These efforts form an essential foundation for improving the quality of instruments in the capital market, strengthening investor confidence, and contributing to Vietnam’s objective of high and sustainable economic growth.

👉 Download the full presentation: HERE

---------------
FiinRatings stands ready to support clients in optimizing capital strategies for 2026 through:
▪️ Credit Rating Services for Issuers or specific debt instruments
▪️ Company Credit Assessment, Sector Credit Research, and Portfolio Credit
Monitoring
▪️ Independent assessments of green bonds, green loans, and ESG assessments.

Please contact us for further support:
📧 𝐄𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐥: support.fiinratings@fiingroup.vn
📞 𝐓𝐞𝐥: (84-24) 3562 6962